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Feasibility Report and Investor Presentation
Specialty coffee shop · Kadıköy Moda, İstanbul · 32+8 seats · 85 m² · 5 September 2026
Elif Demir
A 85 m², 32-seat specialty coffee shop in Kadıköy Moda, İstanbul needs a total investment of ₺11.2m: ₺4.09m in fit-out, equipment and furniture and ₺3.29m as a working-capital reserve (4 months of fixed costs).
Break-even needs 94 covers a day, a safety margin of 29%. Pessimistic payback (ticket −10%, occupancy −15%, slow ramp) is 55 months; optimistic 11 months.
Equity ₺7.70m (69%); the model needs ₺3.50m, the founder's ask is ₺3.60m.
Moda Kahve Evi is planned as a non-alcoholic specialty coffee shop in Kadıköy Moda, İstanbul. The founder's differentiator: “Moda'da kendi kavurduğu çekirdekle çalışan, laptop dostu tek nitelikli kahveci”
Capacity is 32 indoor + 8 outdoor seats, 12 hours a day, 30 days a month. Theoretical seat turns 6.0/day; mature occupancy 63% (FIZIB assumption).
Monthly rent is ₺165k (property found, lease not signed; private landlord, with 20% withholding the cost to the business is ₺206k); 1,941 ₺ per m², 39% above the district benchmark.
Roster at opening-month wages; year-2 monthly payroll after the January minimum-wage steps: ₺675k · 26%
| Line | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Net sales (excl. VAT) | ₺20.9m | ₺30.7m | ₺35.8m |
| Cost of goods sold | −₺5.15m | −₺7.52m | −₺8.71m |
| Gross profit | ₺15.7m75% | ₺23.2m76% | ₺27.1m76% |
| Labor (gross + social security) | −₺6.74m | −₺8.10m | −₺9.43m |
| Rent + charges | −₺2.48m | −₺3.07m | −₺3.62m |
| Platform commissions | −₺724k | −₺1.07m | −₺1.24m |
| Other operating costs | −₺2.78m | −₺3.73m | −₺4.36m |
| EBITDA | ₺3.02m14% | ₺7.26m24% | ₺8.47m24% |
| Depreciation | −₺925k | −₺925k | −₺925k |
| Interest (incl. BSMV) | ₺0 | ₺0 | ₺0 |
| Tax (indicative) | −₺140k | −₺1.58m | −₺1.89m |
| Net profit | ₺1.95m9% | ₺4.75m15% | ₺5.66m16% |
| Metric | Pessimistic | Base | Optimistic | Stress |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year-2 net revenue | ₺23.5m | ₺30.7m | ₺35.1m | ₺25.0m |
| Year-2 EBITDA | ₺1.99m | ₺7.26m | ₺11.1m | −₺27,354 |
| Year-2 EBITDA margin | 8.5% | 23.6% | 31.5% | -0.1% |
| Payback (months) | 55 | 20 | 11 | — |
| Additional funding need | ₺0 | ₺0 | ₺0 | ₺0 |
| Month cash runs out | — | — | — | — |
Stress case: pessimistic plus high inflation, a mid-year wage hike and a fit-out overrun (additional).
Labor is 26% of revenue. January minimum-wage steps (est. 27%, 21%) and a possible mid-year hike hit margin directly.
Mitigation: Reprice the menu with wage steps; cross-train staff; shift planning.
Costs move monthly while the menu reprices every 3 months; each extra 10 points of inflation costs ~1.2 points of gross margin.
Mitigation: Monthly cost tracking, supplier terms, quarterly repricing, focused menu.
Break-even needs 94 covers/day; the plan is 132. Safety margin 29%.
Mitigation: Pre-opening footfall count, three competitor menu checks, soft opening, 90-day marketing budget.
The municipal licence, fire report and food registration can take 1-4 months; a residential title deed needs unanimous co-owner consent.
Mitigation: Check title deed type and licence eligibility at the municipality before signing; licence-conditional break clause; two months of extra cash.
Working capital covers 4 months of fixed costs; the cash trough is ₺3.4m (month 2). 10-20% fit-out overruns are normal in Turkey.
Mitigation: Fixed-price contractor, 10-15% contingency, 4-6 months of working capital.
Central İstanbul is dense with F&B venues; a chain opening nearby resets the price anchor.
Mitigation: Three verifiable differentiators, loyalty programme, neighbourhood relationships.
Governance commitment
132 covers a day at maturity: 40 seats × 6.0 theoretical turns × 63% occupancy (FIZIB assumption). Break-even needs 94; safety margin 29%.
Year-1 net income becomes ₺763k (base ₺1.95m). The pessimistic case combines it with −15% occupancy and a slow ramp: additional funding need ₺0.
Rent-to-revenue is 10%; 24%/18%/14% increases at lease anniversaries are modelled. Payback stays within 36 months until rent rises by 118%.
Labor is 26% of revenue; January steps of 2027 27%, 2028 21% and an employer-cost factor of 1.33 are in the model. Menu prices are updated every 3 months; a repricing in the wage-step month is essential.
Project payback is 20 months. On the investor's share of distributable cash the 5-year multiple is 2.54x, IRR 31% nominal / 12% real; year-3 dividend yield 47%.
₺10.3m post-money = 1.4x year-2 EBITDA (₺7.26m); single-site F&B businesses in Turkey typically change hands at 2-4x EBITDA. Year-5 terminal value ₺3.79m.
Contingency of ₺409k and 4 months of working capital (₺3.29m) are budgeted. The stress case (fit-out +15%, high inflation, mid-year wage step) shows an additional need of ₺0. Investment per seat is ₺280k (reference ₺170k).
Wage inflation and turnover (likelihood 4/5, impact 3/5). Mitigation: Reprice the menu with wage steps; cross-train staff; shift planning.
Answers are derived from the model's numbers; rehearse them in your own words before the meeting.
| Item | TRY | EUR | USD |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total investment | ₺11,200,926 | €202k | $236k |
| Fit-out, equipment, furniture | ₺4,089,902 | €74k | $86k |
| Working capital | ₺3,290,852 | €59k | $69k |
| Monthly rent | ₺165,000 | €2,973 | $3,474 |
| Average ticket (VAT incl.) | ₺330 | €6 | $7 |
| Year-1 net revenue | ₺20,890,463 | €376k | $440k |
| Year-2 net revenue | ₺30,748,763 | €554k | $647k |
| Year-2 EBITDA | ₺7,262,960 | €131k | $153k |
| Year-2 net income | ₺4,753,724 | €86k | $100k |
| Investor ask | ₺3,600,000 | €65k | $76k |
| Post-money valuation | ₺10,285,714 | €185k | $217k |
| End of year-5 value (terminal) | ₺3,785,852 | €68k | $80k |
Investor ask: ₺3,600,000 · 35%
Moda Kahve Evi · Elif Demir · Contact: ________________
This presentation is a projection, not investment advice. All figures rely on user inputs and dated industry assumptions; actual results may differ. · Prepared with FIZIB · Strong feasibility (92/100)