Moda Kahve Evi

A 85 m², 32-seat specialty coffee shop in Kadıköy Moda, İstanbul needs a total investment of ₺11.2m: ₺4.09m in fit-out, equipment and furniture and ₺3.29m as a working-capital reserve (4 months of fixed costs).

At maturity (year 2) an average of 132 customers a day at an average ticket of ₺330 produce ₺30.7m of net revenue with a 24% EBITDA margin. The first year stays at 14% because of the opening ramp.

Break-even needs 94 covers a day, a safety margin of 29%. Pessimistic payback (ticket −10%, occupancy −15%, slow ramp) is 55 months; optimistic 11 months.

Equity ₺7.70m (69%); the model needs ₺3.50m, the founder's ask is ₺3.60m.

Moda Kahve Evi is planned as a non-alcoholic specialty coffee shop in Kadıköy Moda, İstanbul. The founder's differentiator: “Moda'da kendi kavurduğu çekirdekle çalışan, laptop dostu tek nitelikli kahveci”

Capacity is 32 indoor + 8 outdoor seats, 12 hours a day, 30 days a month. Theoretical seat turns 6.0/day; mature occupancy 63% (FIZIB assumption).

Monthly rent is ₺165k (property found, lease not signed; private landlord, with 20% withholding the cost to the business is ₺206k); 1,941 ₺ per m², 39% above the district benchmark.

Rent and service charges are 10% of mature net revenue: a healthy band. Rent can rise at most 118% before payback exceeds 36 months. Rent escalates at lease anniversaries by the 12-month average CPI.

Channel mix: dine-in 61%, takeaway 30%, delivery 10%. Delivery orders carry 35% commission and ads on the gross order; contribution per order is ₺101 (dine-in ₺256).

Revenue is built bottom-up: seats × turns × occupancy × average ticket × days. The opening ramp uses the standard profile: month 1 at 55% of mature occupancy, 100% by month 12.

Seasonality profile “city centre”; Ramadan is modelled as a 15% daytime dip. Menu prices are repriced every 3 months while costs move monthly, so the lag squeezes gross margin.

Investment budget: fit-out ₺2.16m, equipment ₺781k, furniture ₺1.02m, POS/IT ₺134k; licences and incorporation ₺167k, signage and brand ₺200k, key money ₺500k.

Pre-opening costs ₺1.04m (marketing, training payroll, rent during fit-out, opening stock), deposit ₺495k, working capital ₺3.29m (4 months of fixed costs), input VAT on CAPEX ₺884k (recovered by month 9) and a 10% contingency of ₺409k.

Investment per seat ₺280k (industry reference ₺170k), per m² ₺132k. FX reference: $235,809 / €201,818 (2026-09-01 rate).

Staffing is 6 people plus the founder (full-time on site, ₺55,171/month owner's draw). Opening-month employer cost ₺538k/month; employer cost is 1.33x gross (social security, unemployment, meals, transport, severance accrual), with January minimum-wage steps (2027: 27%, 2028: 21%, 2029: 17%) applied.

Mature-year cost structure: food & beverage 24%, labor 26%, rent and charges 10%. Prime cost 51% — healthy.

EBITDA turns positive from month 3. After full funding, cumulative cash bottoms out at ₺3.42m in month 2; the working-capital reserve covers the trough.

Simple payback 20 months, discounted at 40%: 28 months. 5-year NPV at 40% nominal is ₺3.40m; project IRR 58% nominal, 35% real. Terminal value ₺3.79m (year-5 book value + deposit + working capital).

Pessimistic case (ticket −10%, occupancy −15%, slow ramp, COGS +2 pts, rent +30% at renewal): year-2 EBITDA margin 8%, payback 55 months, additional funding need ₺0.

Stress case (pessimistic + inflation 30/26/22%, mid-year wage hike 15%, fit-out +15%, commission +3 pts): additional funding need ₺0, year-2 EBITDA margin -0%. Optimistic case: payback 11 months, NPV ₺12.0m.

Sensitivity: year-1 net profit is driven most by occupancy, average ticket, labor cost (each ±10% or ±3 pts). The first alone moves it by ₺4.53m.

Wage inflation and turnover: Labor is 26% of revenue. January minimum-wage steps (est. 27%, 21%) and a possible mid-year hike hit margin directly. Mitigation: Reprice the menu with wage steps; cross-train staff; shift planning.

Food inflation and repricing lag: Costs move monthly while the menu reprices every 3 months; each extra 10 points of inflation costs ~1.2 points of gross margin. Mitigation: Monthly cost tracking, supplier terms, quarterly repricing, focused menu.

Demand below plan: Break-even needs 94 covers/day; the plan is 132. Safety margin 29%. Mitigation: Pre-opening footfall count, three competitor menu checks, soft opening, 90-day marketing budget.

Total funding need ₺11.2m: equity ₺7.70m (69%), investor ask ₺3.60m.

Offer to investors: ₺3.60m for 35% equity → post-money ₺10.3m, pre-money ₺6.69m (1.4x year-2 EBITDA). On the investor's share of distributable cash (after tax and 15% dividend withholding) the 5-year multiple is 2.54x and the IRR 31% nominal / 12% real / 14% in EUR terms — below the 40% TRY hurdle. Year-3 dividend yield 47%.